Top ten keywords of lithium battery industry in 20

2022-09-21
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Don't say you know lithium battery if you don't know the top ten keywords in the lithium battery industry in 2017

for the lithium battery and electric vehicle industry, 2017 is a year of continuous upward development in fluctuations. The adjustment of subsidies and access policies that touch the core of the industry has made the nerves of the whole industry extremely sensitive to the spring coefficient, the pressure of improving quality and reducing cost, the shortage of raw material supply, and the general lengthening of accounting period. Industrial agglomeration is becoming more and more obvious, and the elimination and integration of the industry is accelerating

under the unprecedented uncertainty, technological innovation, capital mergers and acquisitions, and business model innovation are emerging in endlessly. How to make a good layout in the future in terms of technology reserves, capacity expansion, and business model expansion while preventing policy and market fluctuations is testing the decision-making wisdom of every enterprise leader in the industry chain

standing at the end of 2017 and looking ahead to 2018, it is not difficult for us to make such a study and judgment that "policy, capital, technology and market" will still be the four driving forces of the industry. The difference is that after the current policy that domestic instrument enterprises are basically composed of three teams of R & D, sales and after-sales, and the capital is becoming increasingly rational, technology and market will become key variables for further development

Gaogong lithium battery made an inventory of 2017, reviewed the ups and downs of the industry in the whole year with 10 key words, and made rational research and expectations for the upcoming 2018. See below:

1 subsidy reduction

since the formal implementation of the new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment plan on January 1 this year, due to the increase of the threshold of the recommended model catalogue, the subsidy reduction, and the change of the fund allocation method to post liquidation, the capital pressure of new energy vehicle enterprises has increased sharply, and passenger vehicle enterprises bear the brunt, while passenger vehicle and logistics vehicle enterprises have been relatively less affected. Due to the downturn in the passenger car market, some large battery enterprises have seen their revenue decline and inventory increase, while some second-line battery enterprises focusing on special vehicles and logistics vehicles have risen

the important impact of the subsidy reduction on the whole industrial chain also lies in the fact that enterprises generally have a longer accounting period due to delayed payment, and the gross profit of product prices has decreased. At the same time, in response to the decline of subsidies, the collective has accelerated the pace of research and development, and new technologies and products continue to emerge

2 rise and fall

although the development of the new energy vehicle industry has changed this year, the overall development is still upward. The product price gross profit of enterprises in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain shows a two-fold trend of "rise" and "fall", in which the prices of upstream raw materials nickel, cobalt, lithium carbonate and anode and cathode materials continue to rise, and the gross profit of diaphragm, electrolyte and power battery all decline

according to the survey data, as of October 30, the average price of domestic cobalt market was 446333 yuan/ton, up 64.8% from the beginning of the year. According to the London Metal Exchange (lne), the benchmark price of nickel has increased by 17% to US $11700 per ton this year. At present, the market quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate is stable 60000 yuan/ton, an increase of about 40% over 120000 yuan/ton and 130000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year

the price of ternary materials increased from 10000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year to 10000 yuan/ton at present, with a price increase of more than 43%. The high-end products of cathode materials exceeded 100000 yuan/ton, the price of middle-end products was 10000 yuan/ton, and the price of low-end products hovered around 10000 yuan/ton, with a maximum price increase of 40%

contrary to the rising trend of the above materials, the gross profit of diaphragm and electrolyte decreased by about 10% and 3% respectively, and the price of lithium iron phosphate material generally showed a downward trend, with the current average price of 9 About 80000 yuan/ton, and the price of power batteries generally fell by 20% - 30%

3 seizing resources

the insufficient supply of raw materials has become the biggest obstacle to the development of power batteries. Since this year, lithium carbonate prices have been tight and rising. Lithium carbonate enterprises, cathode material enterprises, power battery enterprises, and even new energy vehicle enterprises and cross-border listed companies are trying to further distribute lithium resources. Global lithium resources such as Australia mining, Canada and Congo have almost been carved up. The news of expanding lithium carbonate production capacity, mergers and acquisitions, or the establishment of new lithium carbonate processing enterprises is often seen in newspapers

the counter attack and turnaround of ternary power battery this year has aroused a wave of overseas investment in cobalt and nickel resources except lithium. Typical cases are: dangsheng technology signed a five-year cooperation agreement with Australian nickel cobalt suppliers; In early July this year, news showed that mining giant Glencore and Ningde times signed a major agreement, the former will sell 20000 tons of cobalt products to the latter. In October 2016, Glencore signed a four-year supply agreement with Ningde times; LG Chemical invested KRW 1billion in nickel sulfate Kemco to obtain 10% shares

4 improving quality and reducing cost

this year, "improving quality and reducing cost" is the main theme of the development of the power battery industry. "Quality improvement" mainly refers to improving the energy density of power batteries by improving the material system and optimizing the pack structure on the premise of ensuring the safety performance of products; "Cost reduction" mainly refers to reducing the manufacturing cost of power batteries through negotiation with suppliers, strengthening the control of product design and manufacturing links, and large-scale production

from the perspective of technology research and development, foreign enterprises LG Chemical, Samsung SDI, ski, etc. have made remarkable achievements in energy density, while domestic enterprises Ningde times, GuoXuan high tech, Tianjin Lishen, BYD, AVIC lithium, BIC, Santon new energy, etc. have also made considerable progress, and ternary materials enterprises. In terms of cost control, the cost of power battery system can generally reach 1 3 yuan/wh. By 2020, the cost target of Wayne exon to reach 1 yuan/wh will definitely be achieved

5 manufacturing upgrading

the large-scale production and advanced technology of power batteries are the key factors restricting the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. Chinese power battery manufacturing enterprises mostly adopt the mode of machine plus labor. The degree of automation is low. The order of high-end lithium battery is a rapid and economical mechanical experiment method, which has relatively few international competitiveness

in this context, the support and promotion of intelligent manufacturing of power batteries at the policy level are also increasing. An obvious change is that the number of intelligent manufacturing integrated standardization and new mode application projects shortlisted in the power battery industry chain has increased from 3 last year to 14 this year, and the number of intelligent manufacturing pilot demonstration projects has also increased from 1 last year to 7 this year. This year's new model project enterprises will receive financial support of 20million-100million yuan. After the demonstration project is completed and passed, it will also receive corresponding government subsidies

after the construction of a new round of intelligent manufacturing projects in the power battery industry chain, the domestic power battery industry will be improved to a certain extent in the next few years, and the competition pattern of the whole power battery market will be more intense at that time

6 squeezing at both ends

power battery, pack, BMS, lithium iron phosphate material enterprises and others who deeply feel the pain of squeezing at both ends this year. For power battery enterprises, on the one hand, they are faced with the continuous rise in the prices of various raw materials in the upstream, on the other hand, they are strongly requested to reduce prices by vehicle manufacturers because of the policy adjustments such as the direct linkage of the new subsidy policy to energy density and the decline of subsidies. While the gross profit margin is reduced, they are also faced with the risk of poor capital flow caused by the delayed payment in the downstream

pack enterprises' living space is severely squeezed by battery factories and car factories. Since 2017, the battery, motor and other information provided by the models in the catalogue recommended by the Ministry of industry and information technology shows that about 80% of battery packs are completed by battery enterprises and vehicle enterprises, and the market share of third-party pack enterprises has decreased from 30% to less than 20%. The situation of BMS enterprises is somewhat similar to that of pack enterprises. The market share is declining year by year due to the competition of vehicle manufacturers and battery manufacturers

this year, lithium iron phosphate material enterprises are facing the double pressure of rising upstream raw materials, insufficient supply and shrinking downstream lithium iron phosphate power battery market. Entering the fourth quarter, it should have been the impulse period and outbreak period of lithium battery enterprises. A large number of lithium iron phosphate material enterprises began to reduce production on a large scale in the fourth quarter, and only received some orders with short accounting period to reduce the pressure of enterprises, waiting for the market to open next year

7 hot capital

according to incomplete statistics, since this year, there have been 54 concurrent mergers and acquisitions (excluding terminated cases) involving enterprises in the lithium battery field, including batteries, upstream materials, equipment, recycling, etc., involving an amount of more than 55billion yuan. From the cases involved in concurrent mergers and acquisitions, there are both cross-border listed companies and investment institutions seeking high-quality lithium battery targets, and concurrent mergers and acquisitions made by lithium battery listed companies to lay out the industrial chain or consolidate their main businesses. The number of cases is large, and the capital investment is large, which continues the trend of high fever in 2016 and 2015

capital has become an important variable to boost the butterfly change of the lithium battery industry. For acquirers, listed companies should be vigilant against risks such as overvaluation, difficult performance commitments, and business integration and industrial synergy that do not meet expectations. For the acquiree, capital is a double-edged sword. How to effectively use external capital to become bigger and stronger is a long-term topic worth pondering by the acquiree enterprises

8 significant differentiation

with the in-depth adjustment of national policies, the concentration of power battery industry continues to increase. At present, Ningde times and BYD account for nearly 50% of the market, and the market share of the top ten power battery enterprises is close to 80%. First tier enterprises continue to erode market share through high quality and high output, and the market gradually enters the period of oligopoly

the market space of the whole negative electrode material industry is gradually expanding, and the market share of leading enterprises is also expanding. Shanghai Shanshan (Shanshan shares acquired Huzhou Chuangya) and putailai (Jiangxi Zichen) lead the development. At present, the artificial graphite market has shown a duopoly pattern of both. Five anode materials, including Xingcheng graphite, Dongguan Kaijin, Shenzhen snow (shellac plans to acquire Shenzhen snow), Jiangxi zhengtuo and xiangfenghua (which has applied for IPO), followed

9 recycling

in 2017, the power battery recycling business increased rapidly, which attracted the attention and layout of more and more enterprises and capital. These enterprises gradually formed three factions: first, lithium battery materials, represented by Huayou cobalt, Hanrui cobalt, Xiamen tungsten and Tianci materials; Second, the power battery system, represented by GuoXuan high tech, BYD, Ningde times, tiannengli, AVIC lithium battery, etc; Third, the third-party recycling system, represented by Bangpu, jintaige, greenmead, Fangyuan environmental protection, Ganzhou haopeng, Jinyuan new material, etc

at a time when the recycling of power batteries is getting hotter, some questions have to be considered in advance: 1. Is the echelon utilization feasible? Although it cannot be called a false proposition, it is undeniable that this is a vacuum zone. A series of peripheral rules such as technical standards, product quality assurance, safety certification and laws for echelon battery utilization are not yet in place, and these products may be difficult to be held accountable in case of quality and safety problems

if nickel, cobalt, lithium and other metals in waste batteries are directly disassembled and recycled, enterprises need to invest a lot of professional equipment and facilities, and long-term operation and maintenance costs are required to fully ensure safety and environmental protection. A large number of manual workshops and non environmental protection enterprises improve their competitive recycling capacity at the expense of the environment, resulting in the recyclable proportion of formal recycling enterprises in the whole system of about 20%

the failure to establish a sound recycling system has become the biggest constraint facing the recycling of domestic power batteries. Fortunately, this situation is expected to change gradually. This year, the Ministry of industry and information technology proposed the first national standard on the recycling and dismantling of power batteries in China, which clearly points out that recycling and dismantling enterprises should have relevant qualifications

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